The real estate market softens in election year. Presidential election years are the worst, but any major election (such as this one), slows the market.”

Timothy Gene Sojka, broker

Let me start by saying, no one will mistake me for a politician. I have no desire to hold office, zero tolerance for posturing, and less than zero interest in anyone else’s opinions.

If you’re dying for me to unfriend you on Facebook, just start talking politics and I am out, brother. I just want to see pics of your grandkids, classic cars, and new puppies. Still, based on my experience, I would like to share how elections affect real estate.

The run up to an election

The real estate market softens in election years. Presidential election years are the worst, but any major election (such as this one), slows the market. Voters usually start to believe (based on a bazillion dollars spent on political advertising) that if their candidate loses, the world is going straight to Hades. So, they do not invest, because they don’t want their money to be burned in the fiery pit of new political hell.

Then, something funny happens after the election. The voters whose candidate wins go spend money, because they believe the world is going to be sunshine, unicorns, chocolate fountains, and roses. The voters whose candidate lost go spend money because they can’t do a thing about it until the next election.

So, the market is baby bunny soft leading up to election, then bounces like a superball when the new savior/devil (depending on your political affiliation) takes office.

The real estate market is hyper-local

Plant closings may affect an industrial city like Detroit but have little effect on Houston. Hurricane Harvey greatly influenced Houston home prices but had little effect on San Francisco. Rising oil prices help the west side of the Houston Metroplex, while lower oil prices drive up values of real estate on the east side.

So national elections do have some effect on long term real estate values, but real estate values are more effected by local events, propositions and elections.

Local elections and their value on real estate

Local judges who enforce laws, school board members with vision and small-town mayors with a plan all affect local real estate values more than any national election. Get to know your local candidates and vote in your local elections.

Learn and study the ballot propositions, if any. Ballot propositions define the next phase of a community’s growth. Should the community approve a new stadium? Should a new school be built? Should a river be diverted? Should a tax on rental cars be implemented? Does a new casino bring jobs or deposit criminals in our midst (the answer is both).

So, do elections affect the real estate market? Of course. Still, maybe not in the way you think. Real estate values are local, in the hands of the school boards more than the president. Local propositions do more to define real estate values than national policy.

Timothy Sojka is the broker of the See TIM Sell Team, at Keller Williams, where his team has sold over 2,000 homes. Tim is also the author of the Amazon #1 political thrillers Payback Jack and Politikill.