We’re looking at building permit activity and we do this every quarter so that we can understand how the housing market is changing. As you know, it changes almost every week. But I will tell you that this area is about to experience dramatic growth period it'll become one of the fastest growing school districts in the state of Texas, and that's not too far down the road.”

Bob Templeton, Zonda Education

Home sales in Royal ISD have more than tripled in the last five years, and those sales will likely exceed 800 homes per year in the next 2-3 years, a demographer said Thursday.

Bob Templeton of Zonda Education spoke at the Royal ISD Facilities Advisory Committee meeting at the Royal Early Childhood Center. The committee is holding a series of meetings in anticipation of putting a bond issue on the May 2023 ballot. Zonda Education is based in Southlake, near Dallas. Templeton said his firm works with school districts across Texas, focusing on demographics and planning.

“We’re looking at building permit activity and we do this every quarter so that we can understand how the housing market is changing,” Templeton said. “As you know, it changes almost every week. But I will tell you that this area is about to experience dramatic growth period it'll become one of the fastest growing school districts in the state of Texas, and that's not too far down the road.”

The increase in home sales will be reflected in the district’s student enrollment, which Templeton said would top 4,100 students in the 2026-27 school year and 7,700 students in the 2031-32 school year. The campuses are approaching capacity limits, he said.

Superintendent Rick Kershner said the enrollment and capacities of the five Royal ISD campuses were as follows:

• Early Childhood Center: 426 students enrolled, 568 capacity, 86% of capacity.
• Royal Elementary School: 561 students enrolled, 825 capacity, 86% of capacity.
• Royal STEM Academy: 329 students enrolled, 563 capacity, 86% of capacity.
• Royal Junior High: 452 students enrolled, 699 capacity, 75% of capacity.
• Royal High School: 836 students enrolled, 1,030 capacity, 75% of capacity.

The district is entering into a new era of fast growth with total enrollment doubling in the next 5-7 years, Templeton said.

Templeton shared maps that illustrated the new housing developments within royal ISD boundaries. He said the district has six actively building subdivisions. Fourteen future subdivisions are planned.

“We’re tracking the housing market for Royal,” Templeton said. “Just a few years ago, we were telling you about 100 to 120 home sales per year, and you can see how it has increased over the last several years. In 2021 and 2020 it was somewhere around 300 home sales per year. I can tell you from my research that's going to double pretty quickly, and it’s going to triple within about three to four years.

Templeton said there is also an increase in pricing that has shot up over the last two years.

“The average price of a home sale within Royal ISD and 2021 is $241,000,” Templeton said. “I suspect that's even higher for 2022 and this increase in the interest rate was meant to slow inflation. That’s the reason the Fed did it. We'll see if it plays out, but right now I haven't seen signs that inflation is slowing.”

Even with home prices going up, the growth is coming, Templeton said.

“This is the same kind of growth you see in Frisco (north of Dallas) you've seen this fast growth in various areas around,” Templeton said. “what's happening is something that many others have experienced along those edges of the major Metroplex areas.”

Templeton said the growth was not a matter of if, but when.